Interactive system overview

From evidence to scenario insight

The Global Simulator turns a bounded question into an inspectable chain: public evidence shapes country dossiers and actor personas; actors propose actions; fixed procedures and seeded rules resolve them; the world state, causal trace and evidence status remain available to the human running the session. Selected mechanisms also have separate evaluation records.

Counterfactual exploration, not prediction. The system helps people inspect assumptions, mechanisms and alternatives. It does not claim to know what real leaders will do.

Inspect one layer

Data → runtime → human control → evidence

Data

Sources, dossiers and parameters enter the model.

Primary role: Research · Read-only explanation

Runtime

Workers apply bounded procedures and persist each transition.

Primary role: Operator · Read-only explanation

Human control

People observe, pause, compare and authorize operational actions.

Primary role: Operator · Read-only explanation

Evidence

Trace, snapshots and claim status remain inspectable.

Primary role: Viewer · Read-only explanation

System map

One model, four useful lenses

Choose a lens to change the explanation below the map.

flowchart TD
    accTitle: The Global Simulator system flow
    accDescr: Evidence becomes country dossiers and personas. Actors propose actions, fixed adjudication and numeric layers change world state, and results keep snapshots, a causal trace and evidence status.
    A[Evidence and provenance] --> B[Country dossiers and personas]
    B --> C[Actor and committee proposals]
    C --> D[Fixed adjudication and numeric world]
    D --> E[Snapshots, causal trace and evidence status]
  

Product lens

Question → consequence → explanation

The product value is not a generated story. It is the ability to frame a scenario, follow institutional responses, inspect why the modeled world moved, and compare an alternative branch.

Analyst lens

Atlas → actors → scenario → causal trace

Analysts move from country context to institutions and people, then through ticks, maps, networks, indicators, cohorts and evidence — while keeping the selected scenario and time position in view.

Operator lens

Health → queue → data → quality → audit

Operators supervise data freshness, task failures, evaluation, forecast schedules and cost. Mutating controls stay visually and permission-wise separate from analytical reading.

Evidence lens

Source → parameter → action → effect → assertion

Provenance, parameter passports, seeded rolls, guardrail corrections, snapshots and claim types form a chain. No single confidence color replaces that chain, and a Scenario is never presented as a Forecast.

Explore the mechanism

Seven chapters

Each chapter links the product story to a concrete mechanism.

  1. 01 World & ticks The observable, pausable loop that advances a scenario. Open chapter
  2. 02 Actors & personas How mandates, research and personal profiles shape an actor. Open chapter
  3. 03 Committees Isolated positions, blinded challenge, vote and dissent. Open chapter
  4. 04 Adjudication Where qualitative arguments meet seeded, fixed procedures. Open chapter
  5. 05 Numbers under the hood Population, economic substrate and institutional gates. Open chapter
  6. 06 Evidence & honesty Five claim types, provenance and explicit boundaries. Open chapter
  7. 07 Eval battery What selected evaluation tracks test — and what they do not. Open chapter

Continue

See the mechanism, then inspect its limits

Walk through a tick Open the public demo Read scope & limitations